After 3 months of blogging, it is now time to conclude. It has definitely been a challenge trying to maintain blogs for two university modules, but it has proven to be rewarding and insightful. Prior to this blog, I had little understanding of tipping points. Evident in my first post, I was pretty sceptical and confused about the reality of tipping points due to the way tipping points were portrayed to the general public and the clutter of scientific jargon and semantic debates.
2016 in review
2016 in review
2016 has definitely been an eventful year and particularly so for the environment. Records were surpassed and the idea of thresholds were featured prominently. Firstly, CO2 concentrations reached 400ppm in September 2016 (when concentrations should be lowest) for the first time since observational records and is projected to remain beyond 400ppm permanently. Although a symbolic limit, the news was a sobering reminder that further emissions coupled with system non-linearity would lead to actual tipping points in system state. Secondly, November and September temperatures over the Arctic has been abnormally high and summer sea ice extent was the second lowest in observational records. We may therefore be edging ever so closely towards a summer ice-free Arctic. Thirdly, the newly published Living Planet Index enforced the notion of Earth undergoing its sixth mass extinction, a terrestrial tipping point, due to anthropogenic activities. Planetary in scale, implications to human well-being and ecosystem functioning would be immense if a certain threshold of anthropogenic influence is reached before dramatic decline in populations.
Concluding Thoughts
After looking at the discourse surrounding tipping points, I believe that it may not be helpful in terms of encouraging political/societal action if scientists and politicians continue to descend into a semantic debate over the meanings of different terms as they have done in recent decades. Furthermore, future studies should better incorporate the possibility of major tipping points in future climate projections and that studies showing a possibility of surpassing tipping points in this century must not be discarded as 'alarmist'. We should therefore move away from a 'discourse of catastrophe' where they solely means irreversible 'points of no return'. If we do so, we risk assuming that nothing will happen until a certain point (present inaction justified) and falsely believing that little can be done when a point is reached. It is also evident that there are still considerable uncertainty in the proximity to certain tipping points and that more extensive investments into monitoring and modelling must be made to develop adequate early warning systems. This, however, does not justify societal and political inaction. Instead, aggressive and urgent mitigation strategies and investments into climate engineering schemes must happen simultaneously. Finally, the public must appreciate the vast numbers of tipping points, whether irreversible or not and whether planetary or local in scale, are present in the Earth system across geographical and temporal scales.
After engaging with countless news articles, videos and scientific articles, I have come to realized both the sheer extent of anthropogenic influence on the earth system and also the timing and impacts of probable and likely tipping elements (in which some may have been surpassed already!). Throughout this blog, I have engaged with a wide range of disciplines across the academic spectrum (from sociology to climatology), fully reflecting the need for more extensive interdisciplinary collaboration in researching the impacts of, mechanisms within and proximity to a wide range of tipping points. Finally, this blog has been rather pessimistic in language. Trying to strike a more optimistic outlook, I present you with this quote again:
I started off with this quote as a simple analogy and explanation for the physical science basics behind global climatic tipping points. I wish to end by using this quote as one calling for urgent climate mitigation and changes to societal norms. Only by gradual and incremental understanding and action by individuals would a 'societal tipping point' be surpassed, technology diffuse into widespread use and political will induces radical change.
Concluding Thoughts
After looking at the discourse surrounding tipping points, I believe that it may not be helpful in terms of encouraging political/societal action if scientists and politicians continue to descend into a semantic debate over the meanings of different terms as they have done in recent decades. Furthermore, future studies should better incorporate the possibility of major tipping points in future climate projections and that studies showing a possibility of surpassing tipping points in this century must not be discarded as 'alarmist'. We should therefore move away from a 'discourse of catastrophe' where they solely means irreversible 'points of no return'. If we do so, we risk assuming that nothing will happen until a certain point (present inaction justified) and falsely believing that little can be done when a point is reached. It is also evident that there are still considerable uncertainty in the proximity to certain tipping points and that more extensive investments into monitoring and modelling must be made to develop adequate early warning systems. This, however, does not justify societal and political inaction. Instead, aggressive and urgent mitigation strategies and investments into climate engineering schemes must happen simultaneously. Finally, the public must appreciate the vast numbers of tipping points, whether irreversible or not and whether planetary or local in scale, are present in the Earth system across geographical and temporal scales.
After engaging with countless news articles, videos and scientific articles, I have come to realized both the sheer extent of anthropogenic influence on the earth system and also the timing and impacts of probable and likely tipping elements (in which some may have been surpassed already!). Throughout this blog, I have engaged with a wide range of disciplines across the academic spectrum (from sociology to climatology), fully reflecting the need for more extensive interdisciplinary collaboration in researching the impacts of, mechanisms within and proximity to a wide range of tipping points. Finally, this blog has been rather pessimistic in language. Trying to strike a more optimistic outlook, I present you with this quote again:
'Little things can make a big difference' (Gladwell 2000)